The Rise of Mojtaba Khamenei: Is the IRGC Installing a New Supreme Leader?

From the Shadows to the Throne: The Battle for Iran’s Future

For decades, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been described as the "gatekeeper" of the Iranian regime. Operating almost exclusively behind the scenes within the Beit-e Rahbari (the Office of the Supreme Leader), Mojtaba has wielded immense power without ever holding a formal elected office.

However, following the confirmed death of his father on February 28, 2026, reports from Iran International and other major outlets suggest that the Assembly of Experts has moved to officially name him the next Supreme Leader—a decision allegedly driven by intense pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

1. Why the IRGC is Banking on Mojtaba

In a period defined by military conflict and internal instability, the IRGC values one thing above all: Continuity.

• Security Ties: Mojtaba served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War and has spent years cultivating deep-rooted relationships with top military and intelligence commanders.

• The "Wartime" Pick: Analysts believe the IRGC views Mojtaba as the "wisest pick" because he is already intimately familiar with the security chain of command. In a time of war, the Guards cannot afford a power struggle among competing clerics.

• Direct Legitimacy: As the son of the "martyred" leader, Mojtaba provides a bridge of legitimacy to the regime's hard-line core base, ensuring the system remains intact even under fire.

2. The Constitutional and Clerical Hurdles

Despite the IRGC's backing, Mojtaba’s path to the top is fraught with controversy:

• The Rank of Ayatollah: Traditionally, the Supreme Leader must be a senior cleric (Ayatollah). Mojtaba is currently a mid-ranking cleric (Hojatoleslam), which has caused friction among senior theologians in Qom.

• The Hereditary "Monarchy" Taboo: The 1979 Revolution was built on the rejection of the Pahlavi monarchy. For many Iranians, a father-to-son succession feels like a betrayal of revolutionary principles, potentially sparking domestic backlash.

• The Assembly's Deliberation: While some reports claim the vote is finalized, the New York Times indicates that senior clerics are still deliberating, fearing that a swift announcement could make Mojtaba an immediate target for further US-Israeli strikes.

3. What a Mojtaba Leadership Means for the War

Mojtaba is widely regarded as even more hard-line than his father. His potential reign would likely signal:

• Escalation or Survival? As the new leader, Mojtaba will face the ultimate choice: intensify the conflict in retaliation for his father's death or seek a strategic "pause" to preserve the regime's survival.

• Consolidation of the Security State: His appointment would effectively place the IRGC at the very center of Iranian governance, moving the country toward a more overt military-clerical hybrid.

A Regime at a Crossroads

Whether Mojtaba Khamenei is officially announced tomorrow or an interim council continues to lead, the influence of the IRGC has never been more apparent. Iran is no longer just choosing a religious figurehead; it is choosing a wartime commander-in-chief.